ENGINE · Live determination
The trigger, the calculation, the seal — end to end.
Server-rendered determination against the Open-Meteo ERA5 archive. If the public feed is unreachable at render time, the engine falls back to a deterministic synthetic sequence tagged as such in the audit trail. Both paths are honest.
POLICY
Fenlands Grain Cooperative (synthetic)
Lincoln, UK — 53.2307, -0.5406
- policy_id
- gsr-2026-lincs-drought-01
- holder
- Fenlands Grain Cooperative (synthetic)
- currency
- GBP
- sum_insured
- £250,000
- premium
- £12,400
- trigger.kind
- rainfall_deficit_mm
- trigger.window
- 2025-06-01 → 2025-08-31
- trigger.threshold
- 120
- payout.shape
- linear
- payout.soft_threshold
- 140
- payout.hard_threshold
- 60
DETERMINATION
Trigger did not fire.
The observed metric did not cross the predefined threshold inside the window. No payout is due.
OBSERVED
147.8
cumulative_precip_mm
PAYOUT RATIO
0.00%
clamped [0, 1]
PAYOUT
£0.00
trigger.fired = false
REASONING TRACE
- trigger.kind=rainfall_deficit_mm, window=2025-06-01..2025-08-31, threshold=120
- observed.cumulative_precip_mm=147.8
- fired=false
- payout_ratio=0
PUBLIC FEED
Observations, byte-for-byte reproducible.
Every row was fetched from the same public URL an auditor can hit. If a day is missing, it is flagged in the reasoning list, not silently zeroed.
source = open-meteo.archive.era5
request_url = https://archive-api.open-meteo.com/v1/archive?latitude=53.2307&longitude=-0.5406&start_date=2025-06-01&end_date=2025-08-31&daily=precipitation_sum%2Ctemperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min&timezone=UTC
fetched_at = 2026-07-08T22:10:27.489Z
request_url = https://archive-api.open-meteo.com/v1/archive?latitude=53.2307&longitude=-0.5406&start_date=2025-06-01&end_date=2025-08-31&daily=precipitation_sum%2Ctemperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min&timezone=UTC
fetched_at = 2026-07-08T22:10:27.489Z
| date | precip_mm | tmax_c | tmin_c |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | 0.4 | 18.3 | 11.6 |
| 2025-06-02 | 0.1 | 18.1 | 10.2 |
| 2025-06-03 | 3.1 | 18.7 | 10.9 |
| 2025-06-04 | 0 | 16.8 | 9.1 |
| 2025-06-05 | 10.4 | 17.8 | 11.8 |
| 2025-06-06 | 2.1 | 16.4 | 10 |
| 2025-06-07 | 3 | 15.8 | 9.1 |
| 2025-06-08 | 2.1 | 15.6 | 8.7 |
| 2025-06-09 | 0.9 | 17.6 | 10.2 |
| 2025-06-10 | 2.6 | 19 | 10.9 |
| 2025-06-11 | 0 | 23.5 | 9.3 |
| 2025-06-12 | 0.1 | 23.8 | 11 |
| 2025-06-13 | 0.6 | 25.5 | 15.1 |
| 2025-06-14 | 0.7 | 23.8 | 15.8 |
| 2025-06-15 | 0.4 | 22.5 | 12.7 |
| 2025-06-16 | 0 | 25.9 | 13 |
| 2025-06-17 | 0 | 25.4 | 13.8 |
| 2025-06-18 | 0 | 25.3 | 13.7 |
| 2025-06-19 | 0 | 24 | 11.7 |
| 2025-06-20 | 0 | 27.8 | 14.3 |
| 2025-06-21 | 1.2 | 29 | 15 |
| 2025-06-22 | 0.8 | 22.8 | 16.1 |
| 2025-06-23 | 0.1 | 19.5 | 13 |
| 2025-06-24 | 0.5 | 22.7 | 14.4 |
| 2025-06-25 | 2.7 | 25.6 | 17.3 |
| 2025-06-26 | 0.9 | 24.1 | 16.4 |
| 2025-06-27 | 0.6 | 27.1 | 13.5 |
| 2025-06-28 | 0.1 | 28.6 | 19.8 |
| 2025-06-29 | 0.1 | 25.4 | 18.5 |
| 2025-06-30 | 0 | 29.9 | 17.6 |
| 2025-07-01 | 0.1 | 25.3 | 16.3 |
| 2025-07-02 | 2.8 | 20.4 | 13.1 |
| 2025-07-03 | 0 | 21.5 | 10.3 |
| 2025-07-04 | 0.7 | 24.6 | 12.6 |
| 2025-07-05 | 0 | 24.1 | 16.4 |
| 2025-07-06 | 19.9 | 19.1 | 13.9 |
| 2025-07-07 | 4.3 | 19.6 | 11.8 |
| 2025-07-08 | 0 | 21.1 | 10 |
| 2025-07-09 | 0.4 | 25.1 | 10.5 |
| 2025-07-10 | 0 | 27.9 | 13.9 |
| 2025-07-11 | 0 | 29.9 | 14.7 |
| 2025-07-12 | 0 | 25.2 | 14.2 |
| 2025-07-13 | 0.4 | 24.8 | 14.2 |
| 2025-07-14 | 3.7 | 25.7 | 15.8 |
| 2025-07-15 | 4.7 | 18.8 | 13.3 |
| 2025-07-16 | 0.4 | 21.7 | 14 |
| 2025-07-17 | 0.3 | 22.6 | 13 |
| 2025-07-18 | 1.6 | 26.7 | 16.9 |
| 2025-07-19 | 18.7 | 20.3 | 16.2 |
| 2025-07-20 | 16.5 | 21.4 | 14.8 |
| 2025-07-21 | 2.7 | 20.9 | 13.1 |
| 2025-07-22 | 2.2 | 21.2 | 13.7 |
| 2025-07-23 | 2 | 21.2 | 14.4 |
| 2025-07-24 | 0.7 | 21.5 | 14.3 |
| 2025-07-25 | 0 | 23.8 | 12.4 |
| 2025-07-26 | 1 | 21.5 | 14.7 |
| 2025-07-27 | 0.1 | 20.1 | 13.3 |
| 2025-07-28 | 0.4 | 22.1 | 12.9 |
| 2025-07-29 | 0.4 | 21.1 | 12 |
| 2025-07-30 | 0.1 | 23.1 | 14.1 |
| 2025-07-31 | 1.2 | 22.6 | 14.9 |
| 2025-08-01 | 0.2 | 19 | 12.9 |
| 2025-08-02 | 0.1 | 20.8 | 11.9 |
| 2025-08-03 | 0.4 | 24.2 | 11.7 |
| 2025-08-04 | 3.1 | 21.5 | 14.8 |
| 2025-08-05 | 0.9 | 19.6 | 13 |
| 2025-08-06 | 0 | 22.1 | 11.2 |
| 2025-08-07 | 1.3 | 23.1 | 14.2 |
| 2025-08-08 | 0 | 23 | 13.2 |
| 2025-08-09 | 0 | 22.6 | 12.7 |
| 2025-08-10 | 0 | 25.1 | 11.3 |
| 2025-08-11 | 0.4 | 27.7 | 14.5 |
| 2025-08-12 | 0 | 28.1 | 15.3 |
| 2025-08-13 | 5.9 | 30.4 | 14.9 |
| 2025-08-14 | 0.1 | 26.2 | 17.4 |
| 2025-08-15 | 0 | 27.7 | 15.8 |
| 2025-08-16 | 0 | 20.5 | 12.9 |
| 2025-08-17 | 0 | 20.2 | 10.4 |
| 2025-08-18 | 0.3 | 19.8 | 15.6 |
| 2025-08-19 | 0.7 | 19.2 | 15 |
| 2025-08-20 | 0.2 | 18.6 | 13.4 |
| 2025-08-21 | 0 | 17.2 | 10.6 |
| 2025-08-22 | 0 | 19.6 | 9.7 |
| 2025-08-23 | 0 | 21.1 | 11.1 |
| 2025-08-24 | 0 | 24.2 | 12.3 |
| 2025-08-25 | 0 | 27.4 | 14.4 |
| 2025-08-26 | 0.2 | 23.7 | 15.8 |
| 2025-08-27 | 5.7 | 22.2 | 13.2 |
| 2025-08-28 | 1.5 | 21.1 | 11.4 |
| 2025-08-29 | 2.3 | 19.6 | 12.7 |
| 2025-08-30 | 5.3 | 21.1 | 12.5 |
| 2025-08-31 | 0.4 | 21.1 | 12.9 |
SEAL
Determination sealed.
Canonical JSON, SHA-256 per determination. Same discipline as every other Galiark pack. Same shape a regulator or carrier can independently re-hash.
- policy_id
- gsr-2026-lincs-drought-01
- as_of
- 2026-07-08T22:10:27.489Z
- record_sha256
- a7863e969874887c894aa554b3d428b7e002bf7f756741a32b5b228baac0f373
- policy_sha256
- 89eb6d7c81768cdbff0244f287868298fd8b24ac28f6adc102f628ec1be486e3
- observations_sha256
- d4bc879229a4c161ceb0a12308c14ee5e5bed9ba697061134122dd80c08d6489
- fired
- false
- payout
- £0.00
- canonical_bytes
- 6860
The full sealed audit trail (three determinations) is on /audit.